AI泡沫担忧从美股蔓延至美国债市，收益率溢价走高

Core Insights - Concerns over an AI investment bubble have spread from the U.S. stock market to the bond market, leading to significant sell-offs of corporate bonds issued by large tech companies [1][2] - The yield spread between corporate bonds and U.S. Treasuries has widened to its highest level since April, indicating increased investor caution regarding the financing of AI infrastructure [2] - Major tech companies like Meta, Alphabet, and Oracle have launched substantial bond issuance plans to fund AI-related projects, with Oracle issuing $18 billion in bonds and Meta securing a $30 billion private debt agreement [1][2] Bond Market Dynamics - The yield premium required by investors for a basket of bonds from large tech companies has risen to 0.78 percentage points, up from 0.5 percentage points in September, reflecting growing concerns about the sustainability of AI investments [2] - Wellington Management noted that the market is becoming aware of the trend of large tech firms turning to public debt markets for funding AI initiatives [2] - JPMorgan estimates that building AI infrastructure will cost over $5 trillion, potentially involving public capital markets and private credit [2] Company-Specific Developments - Oracle's bonds have faced significant pressure, with a tracking index showing a nearly 5% decline since mid-September, while broader high-rated tech bond indices have only dropped about 1% [3] - Oracle's long-term bond total has reached approximately $96 billion, with Moody's highlighting risks associated with reliance on large transactions from a few AI companies for growth [3] - Smaller companies in the AI sector, such as CoreWeave, have also been impacted, with their stock price dropping over 20% in two weeks due to revenue forecast downgrades [3] Market Outlook - Some analysts believe the decline in corporate bonds related to AI is temporary, suggesting that the early stage of the bond issuance cycle may lead to a rebound in prices later on [4]