【狮说新语】略感焦虑？接下来市场的“能见度”好像变高了点？

Group 1 - The market's "visibility" is improving due to stabilizing domestic and international policy environments and ongoing economic recovery, presenting more structural opportunities [2][4] - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. policies is decreasing, with a shift from chaotic to manageable uncertainty, particularly following the U.S.-China summit and adjustments in tariff policies [3][4] - Domestic fiscal policies are becoming more proactive, with significant growth in fiscal spending, which is expected to support the economy and mitigate the impacts of deleveraging in the real estate sector [5][6] Group 2 - A-shares are currently valued reasonably, with the CSI 300 index's forward P/E ratio at 12.6x, slightly above the historical average, indicating a balanced risk premium [6][8] - A-shares are comparatively undervalued against global indices, with the S&P 500 and other major indices showing higher forward P/E ratios [8] - The recovery in industry earnings, particularly in technology and renewable sectors, is expected to help absorb valuations, reducing concerns about overvaluation [8] Group 3 - The investment focus should shift towards "certainty" in the market, with three key themes identified for future investment: the technology wave, external demand expansion, and anti-involution policies [12][18] - The technology sector, particularly AI, is poised for significant growth, with major tech companies continuing to invest heavily, indicating a sustainable growth trajectory [13][14] - China's manufacturing sector is expected to maintain resilience in exports, supported by favorable trade policies and a shift towards more diversified global supply chains [15][17] Group 4 - Anti-involution policies are likely to lead to price and profit recovery in certain industries, particularly those with high state-owned enterprise presence, such as coal and steel [17][18] - The supply-side policies are expected to balance the increase in quality consumption supply while reducing inefficient production capacity, creating opportunities in sectors like chemicals and new energy [17][18]