11月12日金市晚评：三驾马车驱动 黄金多头狂欢！下一目标剑指4200

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by the resolution of the U.S. government shutdown, improving economic data, and a shift in the Federal Reserve's stance from hawkish to dovish, which has strengthened bullish sentiment in the gold market [1]. Group 1: Gold Price Movements - As of November 12, 2025, the spot gold price is trading at $4130.88 per ounce, with a slight increase of 0.13%, reaching a high of $4144.99 and a low of $4069.29 [2][1]. - The recent drop in gold prices to around $4090 raised concerns among investors, but this was expected after a significant increase of $150 in just two days, from $4000 to nearly $4150 [5]. - The key resistance level for gold is at $4150, and if it can break and hold above this level, the next target could be $4200 or even $4250 [7]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Sentiment - The U.S. ADP employment data showed a decrease of 45,000 jobs in October, the largest drop in two and a half years, which has raised expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve [3]. - The market is currently digesting the positive news regarding the reopening of the U.S. government, but concerns remain as the stock market shows signs of weakness [3]. - UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo noted that the market is awaiting clearer signals regarding the government shutdown and upcoming U.S. data, indicating that while gold prices may stabilize temporarily, the overall trend remains upward [4]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - Long-term projections suggest that gold prices are expected to rise, with reasonable pullbacks occurring to solidify support levels, which is a normal market behavior [6]. - JPMorgan's report anticipates that central banks and consumers will act as reliable buyers during price declines, predicting that gold prices will exceed $5000 by the fourth quarter of 2026 [4].