技术面看涨信号显现！ 金价能否突破4150阻力？

Core Viewpoint - The current gold price is experiencing a slight recovery, trading around $4128.00 per ounce, with expectations of a potential rise if it breaks through the resistance levels of $4150-$4155, driven by anticipated economic weakness and a dovish outlook from the Federal Reserve [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Context - The reopening of the U.S. government has shifted market focus towards deteriorating fiscal prospects and concerns over weakening economic momentum, with economists estimating that the government shutdown may have reduced quarterly GDP growth by approximately 1.5% to 2.0% [2]. - The restoration of normal data flow is expected to reinforce these concerns, especially following weaker-than-expected employment and consumer confidence indicators from the previous week [2]. - Revelio Labs reported that the number of unemployed individuals reached 9,100 last week, with a reduction of 22,200 government payroll positions, indicating a worsening labor market [2]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The dovish expectations regarding the Federal Reserve have led to a decline in the U.S. dollar index to a near two-week low, which has supported non-yielding assets like gold, allowing it to gain momentum after breaking the $4100 mark [2]. - The U.S. stock market, particularly the Dow Jones Industrial Average, reached a record closing high, while European markets also closed at historical highs, driven by healthcare stocks [2]. Group 3: Technical Analysis of Gold - From a technical perspective, gold prices are struggling to establish a strong position above the 50% retracement level of the recent sharp decline from the historical high reached in October, which is at $4134 [3]. - Positive oscillators on daily and 4-hour charts favor bullish traders, with a potential breakout above the $4150-$4155 area likely to reaffirm a constructive outlook and allow gold to reclaim the $4200 level, close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $4193 [4]. - Conversely, a convincing break below the recent low around $4100-$4095 could trigger technical selling, dragging prices down to the $4025 area and potentially towards the psychological level of $4000 [4].