十亿桶原油“堵”在海上了！都是制裁惹的祸？

Core Insights - The global oil market is currently facing a backlog of up to 1 billion barrels of crude oil, significantly influenced by sanctions against certain countries, particularly Russia, Iran, and Venezuela [1][4][6] - The increase in offshore oil inventories since late August is primarily attributed to a rise in production from sanctioned countries, which now accounts for approximately 40% of the increase, despite their global production share being lower [1][4] - The backlog poses a threat to the revenues of sanctioned oil-producing countries and could further impact the already anticipated oversupply in the global oil market [1][4] Supply Dynamics - The backlog of crude oil is not permanent, but it indicates challenges in unloading and selling oil from sanctioned countries, particularly Russia, which has seen an increase in maritime oil transport [4][6] - Western sanctions have led to a significant drop in Russian oil tax revenues, with a year-on-year decline of over 24%, and projections suggest that oil and gas revenues will hit their lowest level since the pandemic began in 2020 [6] - In contrast, Iran's oil exports have surged to a seven-year high in October, coinciding with new U.S. sanctions on a major terminal involved in procuring Iranian oil [6] Market Reactions - The increase in oil supply from non-sanctioned countries, particularly Saudi Arabia and the U.S., has contributed to the overall rise in offshore oil inventories [7] - Saudi Arabia has ramped up its oil exports at the fastest rate in two and a half years, recovering market share lost due to previous OPEC+ production cuts [7] - U.S. crude oil exports reached their highest monthly average since July 2024, driven by Asian refiners capitalizing on price differentials [7]