Di Yi Cai Jing·2025-11-12 11:20Core Insights - Goldman Sachs recently released a research report on the humanoid robot industry, indicating that early capacity planning in this sector is reasonable and does not imply an imminent risk of oversupply [1][3] - The report predicts that global shipments of humanoid robots will reach 1.38 million units by 2035, with an optimistic scenario projecting shipments of 11.57 million units, reflecting the early stage of industry development and various future possibilities [3] Industry Capacity and Planning - Most supply chain companies in the humanoid robot sector are optimistic about future prospects and are actively planning production capacity both domestically and internationally, although no companies have confirmed large orders or specific production timelines [3][4] - Current capacity planning among Chinese supply chain companies translates to an annual production capacity of approximately 100,000 to 1 million robots, with most companies intending to scale up gradually upon receiving actual orders [3][4] Market Demand and Supply Chain Development - The humanoid robot market currently lacks substantial order volumes, with a threshold of over 10,000 units needed to establish a viable supply chain system [4] - Demand for humanoid robots is emerging from technology companies, universities, and government procurement, with potential applications in large model training, factory use, and exhibition performances expected to increase in the next one to two years [4] Investment Trends and Market Performance - The humanoid robot sector has seen a significant rise in capital market interest this year, with strong performance in the A-share market reflecting future industry development expectations [4] - Investors, particularly overseas, are looking for differentiated products and technological capabilities in humanoid robots, alongside ongoing technological breakthroughs and the establishment of practical application scenarios [4] Future Projections - According to Gartner, by 2028, 80% of warehouses will utilize robotic technology, and by 2030, 30% of factory workers will interact with humanoid robots in real work environments, a significant increase from the current rate of less than 5% [5] - Gartner also forecasts that by 2030, humanoid robots using open-source embodied AI technology will cost as low as $5,000, potentially replacing 30% of jobs in the service labor market [6]