生猪周期怎么看华创资管多资产周报商品篇 2025-11-12

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates that the current pig cycle is nearing its bottom, with potential for a price increase in the future, driven by supply adjustments in response to declining breeding profits [10][19]. Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - The overall commodity market showed a weak trend, with the South China Industrial Products Index declining by 0.72% week-on-week [1]. - The top five gainers in industrial products included pulp, paraxylene, urea, aluminum, and zinc, while the biggest losers were asphalt, iron ore, methanol, butadiene rubber, and propylene [1]. Group 2: Pulp Market Analysis - Pulp futures prices increased by 3.10%, showing a bullish trend technically, with low import costs and improved corporate profits [2]. - Domestic pulp inventory at major ports has seen a slight decrease, but remains at a relatively high level, indicating a loose supply [2]. - Demand from downstream paper production has generally increased, with white cardboard starting to stock up for the Spring Festival orders, leading to a recovery in trading [2]. Group 3: Asphalt Market Analysis - Asphalt futures prices fell by 6.59%, influenced by a drop in international oil prices and weak demand [6]. - With decreasing temperatures, road projects in northern regions have largely halted, while southern projects may enter a rush phase, putting pressure on future demand [6]. - Despite a contraction in supply with low operating rates, weak demand has led to significant declines in both futures and spot prices [6]. Group 4: Agricultural Products Overview - The South China Agricultural Products Index rebounded by 0.57% week-on-week, with the top five gainers being soybean meal, chicken eggs, corn, and corn starch, while the biggest losers included red dates, fiberboard, rapeseed, apples, and palm oil [8]. Group 5: Pig Cycle Analysis - The pig cycle is primarily driven by supply-side factors, with stable pork demand in China. When pork prices rise, farmers increase breeding, leading to a subsequent supply surplus and price decline [10]. - Historical trends show that the time from price peak to trough is typically around one year, while the recovery phase can take between one to four years [10]. - Current pig prices are in a bottoming phase, with expectations of a price peak around August 2024, suggesting that prices may be close to their bottom now [10]. Group 6: Breeding and Supply Dynamics - The growth rate of breeding sows is expected to peak in April 2025, after which it will gradually decline, impacting pig supply [12]. - The relationship between pig output and pork prices is inversely correlated, with a lag of about six months [12]. - As of late September 2025, breeding profits have turned negative, leading to a slow reduction in breeding sows, but an acceleration in this reduction is anticipated due to ongoing losses [14][19].