国际观察｜加沙停火脆弱维持 第二阶段谈判成疑

Core Points - The ceasefire agreement's first phase has been in effect for over a month, but tensions between Hamas and Israel remain high, with both sides accusing each other of violations, indicating a fragile peace [1][2][3] - The second phase of negotiations is expected to be more challenging, addressing long-term structural issues such as disarmament of Hamas and withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza [5][6] Summary by Sections Ceasefire Status - The ceasefire has seen some progress, including the return of 300 Palestinian bodies and 23 Israeli and other nationality bodies facilitated by the Red Cross [2] - Despite this, local conflicts persist, with Israel and Hamas frequently accusing each other of ceasefire violations, leading to military actions and casualties [2][3] Trust Issues - There is a deep-rooted mutual distrust between Hamas and Israel, complicating the ceasefire's implementation and the negotiation process [3][6] - The lack of an effective monitoring mechanism has allowed for ongoing conflicts, making it difficult to determine accountability for violations [3] International Involvement - Although over 20 countries participated in a summit regarding the ceasefire, actual commitments to deploy international forces or aid have been limited, with some countries hesitant to act without clear guarantees [4] Future Negotiations - The second phase of negotiations will involve more complex issues, including the disarmament of Hamas and the demilitarization of Gaza, which are seen as critical yet difficult to resolve [5][6] - Experts suggest that the negotiations may not even reach the second phase due to the significant power imbalance between Israel and Hamas, with the first phase primarily serving Israeli interests [6]