SIASUN(SZ:300024) 智通财经网·2025-11-12 13:39Core Insights - Goldman Sachs conducted a survey on the rapidly growing humanoid robot sector in China, involving nine key supply chain companies, reflecting a positive outlook on future demand despite the absence of large orders currently [1] Part 1: Capacity Planning and Growth Expectations - Most suppliers are actively planning production capacity in China and overseas (primarily Thailand and Mexico) to support potential mass production of humanoid robots, with projected annual robot output ranging from 100,000 to 1,000,000 units [2] - Goldman Sachs predicts a global humanoid robot shipment of 1.38 million units by 2035, indicating a significant difference in outlook between supply chain companies and market forecasts [2] - Current capacity planning does not necessarily indicate an imminent risk of oversupply, but it does reflect a forward-looking optimism within the supply chain [2] Part 2: Product Matrix Upgrade and New Growth Engines - Suppliers are expanding their product matrices from single components to integrated modules, aiming to increase market share by leveraging existing production synergies [3] - Companies emphasize their technological capabilities and readiness for scalable production, with a focus on rapid design-to-product conversion cycles as a core competitive advantage [3] Part 3: Key Clients and Market Validation - Key clients mentioned during the survey include Tesla's Optimus, Zhiyuan, Leju, and Xiaopeng, which are expected to be early adopters of external suppliers for humanoid robot mass production, anticipated to begin in the second half of 2026 [4] Monitoring Key Nodes - Goldman Sachs maintains a positive long-term outlook on humanoid robot technology but emphasizes the need to monitor core product performance and specific end applications to determine if a technological inflection point is approaching [4] Company-Specific Insights Sanhua Intelligent Control - Plans to utilize additional land in Thailand for humanoid robot actuator assembly, with a focus on a single global client rather than broad customer expansion [7] - Maintains a dominant market share of 50% in the actuator assembly sector [7] Top Group - Plans to establish production capacity in Thailand, Mexico, and the U.S., with a projected annual capacity of 1 million units in Thailand, contingent on customer demand [8] - Engages in open collaboration with various clients, including joint development projects [8] Zhejiang Rongtai - Recently acquired a majority stake in a precision machinery company to enhance its capabilities in supplying components for humanoid robots [9] - Plans to shift production capacity to Thailand by 2025, emphasizing high precision and consistency in manufacturing [10] Dual Ring Transmission - Developing innovative solutions for domestic humanoid robot manufacturers, with plans to start mass production in the third quarter of 2026 [11] - Engaged with several domestic startups to provide planetary gear solutions [11] Minth Group - Targets a revenue of 5 billion RMB from humanoid robots by 2030, with a current production line capable of 10,000 units annually [13] - Collaborating with AgiBot on various technological developments [14] Joyson Electronics - Focuses on head assembly for humanoid robots, with plans to start capacity construction in the second quarter of next year [15] - Anticipates a gross margin of 25%-30% once production stabilizes [15] Zhaowei Electromechanical - Provides core micro-components for humanoid robots, with a focus on high power density and miniaturization [17] - Plans to achieve 100 million RMB in revenue from dexterous hands by 2026 [18] Best - Expanding its product line to include structural components and linear modules for humanoid robots, with current contributions to revenue being minimal [19] Shuanglin Co. - Plans to increase production capacity significantly by 2025 to meet domestic and international demand for humanoid robot components [21]