国家统计局重磅经济数据即将发布

Economic Overview - The National Bureau of Statistics is set to release October economic data on November 14, with expectations of a slowdown in multiple macro indicators due to a higher base in 2024 and increased external uncertainties [2] - The latest "Chief Economist Confidence Index" from the First Financial Research Institute stands at 50.3, indicating stable economic performance and a projected annual growth target of 5% for the year [2] Industrial Growth - Economists predict a year-on-year industrial added value growth of 5.7% for October, down from 6.5% in the previous month [3] - The manufacturing PMI for October is reported at 49.0%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity [3][4] - High-frequency data shows a decline in production indices, with steel production maintaining a high operating rate of 84.38% in October, reflecting a strong demand in the "golden September and silver October" season [4] Consumer Spending - The forecast for year-on-year growth in social retail sales for October is 2.7%, down from 3% in the previous month [5] - The non-manufacturing business activity index for October is at 50.1%, indicating expansion, driven by holiday consumption during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival [5] - The "old-for-new" policy is expected to significantly boost consumption in related sectors, contributing to a high base effect for October [5] Automotive Industry - In October, China's automotive production and sales reached 3.359 million and 3.322 million units, respectively, marking year-on-year increases of 12.1% and 8.8% [6] - New energy vehicle production and sales also saw significant growth, with year-on-year increases of 33.1% and 32.7% [6] Infrastructure Investment - Fixed asset investment is projected to decline by 0.8% year-on-year for the first ten months of the year, with infrastructure investment showing signs of recovery due to new policy financial tools [7][8] - The construction PMI for the civil engineering sector has shown slight improvement, indicating potential stabilization in infrastructure investment [7] Policy Measures - The government has intensified growth stabilization policies, with 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools fully allocated to support key investment projects [10] - Local governments are actively deploying measures to boost consumption and investment, including issuing consumption vouchers and launching major infrastructure projects [10][11]