别被牛市冲昏头！美股涨势可能比你想象的更脆弱

Group 1 - The current rally in the U.S. stock market appears fragile, with multiple indicators suggesting underlying vulnerabilities that exceed surface appearances [1] - The market has experienced significant volatility in 2025, influenced by trade wars, real conflicts, concerns over the weaponization of the dollar, and a surge in AI investments, alongside notable bankruptcy cases [1] - Despite ongoing turbulence, stock indices remain near historical highs, which may signal a warning for seasoned investors who have weathered previous market cycles [1] Group 2 - Technical analysis reveals a concerning trend: while the S&P 500 index reaches new highs, the number of constituent stocks hitting new lows is increasing, indicating a "negative divergence" [4] - Historical patterns suggest that high valuation levels can lead to substantial market corrections, with past instances showing declines of 30% to 50% when valuations peaked [4] - The current valuation metrics for U.S. stocks have surpassed a century-old record, raising alarms about potential future declines [4] Group 3 - From a purchasing power perspective, the time required to earn enough to buy a contract of the S&P 500 index has exceeded 200 hours, significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels and the peak in 2000 [7] - The high proportion of stock ownership among U.S. households indicates a potential for significant selling pressure, as retail investors often drive valuations to unsustainable levels [10] - Despite prevailing optimism in the market, numerous warning signs suggest a possible trend reversal, emphasizing the importance of protective investment strategies [10]