MELI's Margins Under Pressure: Can it Balance Growth & Profitability?

Core Insights - MercadoLibre (MELI) is under increasing scrutiny regarding its ability to maintain profitability while aggressively expanding in Latin America's e-commerce and fintech sectors [1][3] - The company's strategy of lowering free shipping thresholds and expanding logistics has strengthened its ecosystem but also exposes vulnerabilities as it trades short-term margins for long-term scale [1][3] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, MELI's operating margin decreased by 70 basis points year-over-year to 9.8%, and gross profit margin fell by 260 basis points to 43.3% [2][7] - The growth in logistics efficiency appears to be flattening, with unit shipping costs in Brazil declining only 8% sequentially despite a 42% increase in items sold [2] - Mercado Pago's credit portfolio increased by 83% to $11 billion, but net interest margin after losses compressed to 21%, indicating capital intensity in scaling financial services [2] Growth Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Q4 2025 revenues is $8.54 billion, reflecting a 39.48% year-over-year increase [3] - The central issue for MercadoLibre is whether its growth can coexist with healthy profitability, as rising logistics and credit costs challenge the balance between expansion and earnings [3] Competitive Landscape - MercadoLibre faces intensified competition from Sea Limited and Amazon, both of which are expanding their presence in Latin America's e-commerce and fintech markets [4] - Sea Limited is enhancing its Shopee platform and digital finance services, while Amazon is strengthening its logistics and local marketplace capabilities [4] Stock Performance and Valuation - MELI shares have risen by 23.4% year-to-date, outperforming the Zacks Internet-Commerce industry and the Zacks Retail-Wholesale sector [5] - The stock is currently trading at a forward 12-month Price/Sales ratio of 3.03X, compared to the industry's 2.48X, indicating a relatively higher valuation [9] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MELI's 2025 earnings is $40.27 per share, down 6.8% over the past 30 days, suggesting a year-over-year growth of 6.85% [11]