Earnings Preview: Target (TGT) Q3 Earnings Expected to Decline

Core Viewpoint - The market anticipates a year-over-year decline in Target's earnings due to lower revenues, with a focus on how actual results compare to estimates impacting stock price [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - Target is expected to report quarterly earnings of $1.77 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 4.3% [3]. - Revenue projections stand at $25.36 billion, indicating a decline of 1.2% from the previous year [3]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has remained unchanged over the last 30 days, suggesting stability in analysts' outlooks [4]. - The Most Accurate Estimate for Target is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of -5.23%, indicating a bearish sentiment among analysts [12]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model suggests that a positive reading is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, particularly when combined with a Zacks Rank of 1, 2, or 3 [10]. - Target currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3, complicating predictions of an earnings beat due to the negative Earnings ESP [12]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Target was expected to earn $2.09 per share but only achieved $2.05, resulting in a surprise of -1.91% [13]. - Over the past four quarters, Target has only beaten consensus EPS estimates once [14]. Conclusion - Target does not appear to be a strong candidate for an earnings beat, and investors should consider additional factors when making decisions regarding the stock ahead of the earnings release [17].