Prediction markets put Trump tariff win at 24% following Supreme Court oral arguments

Core Insights - Traders on prediction platforms Kalshi and Polymarket are showing skepticism regarding the Supreme Court's support for President Trump's tariffs, with Kalshi indicating a 25% chance and Polymarket at 23% [1][4][11] - The trading volumes on these platforms reflect significant public sentiment, with Kalshi at just over $1 million and Polymarket slightly above $1.1 million [1][4] Group 1: Market Sentiment - Kalshi traders have reduced the likelihood of the Supreme Court siding with Trump's tariff plan by 20 points following oral arguments [1] - Polymarket has also seen a decrease in odds by 15 points, indicating a similar sentiment shift [4] Group 2: Legal Context - The Supreme Court is currently reviewing Trump's authority to impose tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, following a federal appeals court ruling that he exceeded his authority [7][8] - The legal scrutiny comes as Trump's trade policies face challenges regarding their constitutionality and the separation of powers [7] Group 3: Economic Implications - Trump has proposed using tariff revenue to fund $2,000 checks for Americans and to address the national debt of $38 trillion [11] - He has emphasized the importance of tariffs for national defense against other countries, framing the legal case as critical for the country [11]