S&P 500 Headed To 9,000 By 2030–But The Real Boom Is Overseas - Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (ARCA:VOO), iShares MSCI Emerging Index Fund (ARCA:EEM)

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs presents a bullish outlook for long-term equity investors, predicting solid returns for U.S. stocks over the next decade, with even stronger gains anticipated in emerging markets [1][11]. U.S. Market Outlook - The S&P 500 is projected to reach 9,000 by 2030 and 11,100 by 2035, with a 10-year annualized return forecast of 6.5%, driven by 6% annual earnings-per-share (EPS) growth and modest dividends of 1.4% [1][5]. - The real return estimate, adjusted for inflation, is expected to be 4% per year, placing it in the 33rd percentile of historical outcomes [3][4]. - The forecast indicates a range of potential returns from 3% to 10% over the next decade, highlighting uncertainty due to current market concentration [4][6]. Emerging Markets and Asia - Emerging markets are expected to deliver significantly higher returns, with an annualized return of 10.9% in local currency and 12.8% in USD over the next decade, nearly double that of the S&P 500 [5][8]. - Key drivers for this bullish outlook include 8.7% annual EPS growth and a 2.9% dividend yield, particularly in markets like India, China, and South Korea [6][10]. - India is forecasted to achieve the highest earnings growth at 12.6% annually, supported by strong GDP growth and favorable demographics [6][10]. Regional Insights - The dividend yield in MSCI Emerging Markets is projected to rise from 2.5% today to 3.2% by 2035, indicating increasing shareholder returns [7]. - Asia excluding Japan is expected to yield 10.3% annual returns, with 9% EPS growth and a 2.7% dividend yield, despite moderate valuation compression [7][10]. - Japan is anticipated to produce 8.2% annual returns, driven by 6% EPS growth and improving shareholder returns due to policy changes [7]. Currency and Global Trends - A declining U.S. dollar is expected to enhance the performance of non-U.S. equities, providing additional opportunities for globally diversified investors [9][10]. - The long-term impact of AI is viewed as a global phenomenon, with benefits extending beyond U.S. technology companies [9][10]. Investment Strategy - Investors are encouraged to diversify beyond the U.S. market, particularly towards emerging markets, to capitalize on higher nominal GDP growth and structural reforms [10][11].