Shang Hai Zheng Quan Bao·2025-11-12 17:51Core Viewpoint - The chemical industry is transitioning from a state of overcapacity to a supply-demand rebalancing, driven by global economic recovery and targeted domestic policies, with 2026 identified as a critical year for establishing a turning point in the industry [2][3]. Supply Side Analysis - Capital expenditure in the chemical industry has peaked, with fixed asset and new capacity growth rates declining to around 7%, a significant drop from double-digit growth in 2021-2022 [3]. - New capacity for traditional bulk chemicals like methanol, ethylene, and PTA has decreased by over 30% year-on-year, while smaller capacities are exiting the market due to environmental and safety constraints, leading to increased industry concentration [3]. Demand Side Analysis - The recovery in demand is driven by both domestic and international factors, including the U.S. entering a rate-cutting cycle, which is expected to boost global chemical product export demand growth to 8%-10% by 2026 [3]. - In China, key demand engines such as real estate, textile exports, and agricultural chemicals are gradually gaining momentum, with chemical product export growth showing signs of recovery [3]. Policy Impact - The "anti-involution" policy is accelerating the industry's turnaround, with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasizing three key measures: controlling new capacity, reducing existing capacity, and managing processes [4]. - The old capacity assessment has been completed, and the implementation of these policies is in the countdown phase, with industry associations and leading companies actively participating in these initiatives [4]. Sector-Specific Insights - The chlor-alkali industry is expected to see a gradual slowdown in supply growth due to restrictions on traditional production methods [5]. - The textile chain, particularly the nylon industry, is projected to improve profitability as operating rates rise above 90% [5]. - The organic silicon sector is nearing a turning point as the period of intensive capacity investment ends, with strong demand support anticipated [5]. High-Elasticity Core Enterprises - The textile chain is highlighted as a primary focus, with significant improvements in supply-demand dynamics expected to lead to concentrated profit releases in 2026 [6]. - The agricultural chemical chain is benefiting from food security strategies, with a tight supply-demand situation projected for phosphate chemicals until at least 2028 [7]. - The overseas real estate chain is expected to benefit from global economic recovery, particularly in the fluorochemical sector, where demand for refrigerants is strong [8]. New Materials and Technologies - New materials are identified as a critical area for investment, with a focus on semiconductor materials, OLED panel materials, and solid-state batteries among others [9]. - The chemical industry is witnessing a consolidation of leading companies, with the number of top firms increasing from 3-4 to around 20 over the past decade, indicating a strengthening competitive landscape [10].