Workflow
中金公司:当前A股整体估值相对合理
Xin Hua Cai Jing·2025-11-13 02:21

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the overall valuation of A-shares is relatively reasonable and not overvalued [1] - As of November 4, 2025, the P/E TTM of the CSI 300 is approximately 14.2 times, compared to 25.5 times for the S&P 500, 23.8 times for the Nikkei 225, 19.3 times for the French CAC 40, 17.4 times for the MSCI Asia-Pacific, and 17.2 times for the German DAX, indicating that A-share valuations remain low in an international comparison [1] - The current dividend yield of the CSI 300 is about 2.5%, which is attractive compared to the approximately 1.8% yield of ten-year government bonds [1] - The market capitalization of A-shares relative to China's GDP is about 77%, which is low compared to other major global markets, such as approximately 230% for the U.S. and 180% for Japan [1] - The total market capitalization of A-shares to M2 ratio is approximately 35.6%, close to the historical average of 35.7%, suggesting a "repair" in valuation rather than overvaluation [1] Group 2 - The report indicates that Chinese stock assets face a historical opportunity due to the global monetary system's restructuring, with asset revaluation potentially still in its early stages [2] - The restructuring of the global monetary order may prompt global funds to reallocate in two ways: diversification, where investors seek alternatives to the U.S. dollar, and fragmentation, where previously globally allocated funds return to their respective markets [2] - If policies are appropriately addressed, the international status of the renminbi is expected to improve, and renminbi assets may benefit from the global fund reallocation [2] - The forces of the global monetary order's restructuring and the resulting changes in capital flows may outweigh the fundamental strengths of any single country or market [2]