张明：国际货币体系变化的先兆

Core Insights - A chart showing the changing proportions of gold reserves and U.S. Treasury securities in global international reserves has gained significant attention on social media, indicating a potential shift in investment strategies among countries [1][2] - The proportion of U.S. Treasury securities in global reserves peaked around one-third in 2016 but is projected to decline to below 25% by mid-2025, while gold reserves are expected to rise above 25% [1] - The price of gold has increased significantly from around $1,200-$1,300 per ounce in 2016 to approximately $3,300 per ounce by mid-2025, while the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds has risen from an average of 1.85% in 2016 to around 4.2%-4.3% [1] Investment Behavior - The decline in U.S. Treasury securities and the rise in gold reserves are influenced by sovereign nations intentionally increasing their gold holdings while reducing U.S. Treasury investments [2] - The period of rising U.S. Treasury securities (1980-2016) coincided with a phase of robust economic globalization, while the decline since 2016 aligns with a backlash against globalization [2][3] - The U.S. dollar remains the dominant global reserve currency, but confidence in the current monetary system has been shaken by recent U.S. government actions, including trade wars and asset freezes [3][4] Future Outlook - The trend of reducing U.S. Treasury holdings may become a rational choice for emerging markets and some developed countries, despite the dollar's continued importance in the international monetary system [4] - Other currencies such as the euro, yuan, yen, and pound are expected to play increasingly significant roles, with the yuan showing the most potential [4] - The future international monetary system may evolve into a hybrid model combining elements of the "three islands of global financial stability" and the proposed "Bretton Woods 3.0" framework [4]