2026年将成为行业右侧拐点确立的关键之年，聚焦石化ETF（159731）反转行情

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a rebound, with the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Index rising approximately 1.2%, indicating a positive trend in the chemical industry [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Index saw a rapid increase, with constituent stocks such as Lianhong Xinke hitting the daily limit, and other companies like Xingfa Group, Yanhai Co., Cangge Mining, and Luxi Chemical also showing gains [1] - The Petrochemical ETF (159731) attracted a total of 112 million yuan in capital over the past 20 trading days, reflecting strong investor interest [1] Group 2: Industry Analysis - According to Song Tao, the chief analyst for the chemical industry at Shenwan Hongyuan Securities, the chemical industry is currently at a supply and demand bottom, with a peak in capital expenditure ending and policies aimed at reducing competition being implemented [1] - The commencement of a rate cut cycle in the U.S. is expected to lead to a demand recovery, with 2026 identified as a critical year for establishing a turning point in the industry [1] - Key segments such as agricultural chemicals, textile and apparel, overseas real estate, and new materials are anticipated to stand out due to varying industrial logic [1] Group 3: Sector Composition - The top three industries within the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Index are refining and trading (26.8%), chemical products (22.4%), and agricultural chemical products (21.1%), providing investors with a comprehensive view of the chemical industry's recovery [1]