国网山西电力上线低压分布式光伏预测系统

Core Insights - A low-pressure distributed photovoltaic power forecasting system has been launched in Shanxi Province, covering 11 cities and 115 counties, achieving over 95% accuracy in short-term forecasts [1] - As of the end of September, the installed capacity of distributed photovoltaic in Shanxi reached 14.89 million kilowatts, a 36% increase compared to the end of 2024 [1] - The new forecasting system addresses challenges posed by the variability of solar energy generation, which affects grid stability and precise scheduling [1] Technology Development - The system utilizes a time-series large model to predict low-pressure distributed photovoltaic power, analyzing historical generation data alongside various meteorological factors such as temperature, sunlight, cloud cover, and air quality [1] - It integrates meteorological data with historical generation data, allowing for multi-dimensional forecasting at provincial, municipal, and county levels [1] - The model is fine-tuned using local data from Shanxi, enhancing the specificity and accuracy of the predictions [1] Operational Efficiency - The new system enables the prediction of overall photovoltaic generation across the province, overcoming previous difficulties in accurately assessing scattered distributed photovoltaic power [1] - It provides decision-making support for optimizing grid scheduling by anticipating fluctuations in photovoltaic generation [1] - The system can complete a single forecasting task in under 20 seconds, significantly improving operational efficiency [1]