华创证券：航空客座率升至历史高位 “高”弹性或一触即发

Core Viewpoint - The aviation industry is experiencing a non-seasonal peak in ticket prices, driven by historically high passenger load factors, low growth in flight supply, and a continuous increase in passenger numbers [1] Group 1: Current Industry Phenomena - Ticket prices have turned positive since mid-September, attributed to high passenger load factors reaching 86.3% in September, the highest for this period since 2006 [1] - The domestic flight growth rate is below 1%, while passenger numbers continue to show resilient growth [1] Group 2: Industry Outlook - The supply-demand fundamentals are currently better than in 2019 and 2024, with a projected increase in passenger turnover of 10.3% and fleet size by 13.2% in 2024 compared to 2019 [2] - By the first three quarters of 2025, the supply-demand gap is expected to turn positive, with passenger turnover increasing by 19.3% compared to the same period in 2019 [2] Group 3: Demand Structure Improvement - Business travel is returning to an expansion phase, contributing to the overall improvement in demand structure, with the travel willingness index reaching 50.4% in September, indicating expansion [3] - Cross-border travel demand is growing faster than domestic demand, with international passenger numbers increasing by 20.3% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2025 [3] Group 4: Supply Constraints - Supply is constrained by maintenance issues and low growth in new aircraft deliveries, with significant recalls affecting existing fleet availability [4] - Major manufacturers like Boeing and Airbus are facing delivery backlogs, with Airbus having 8,698 aircraft and Boeing 6,579 aircraft pending delivery [4] - The actual delivery rates of major airlines have been below 50% of initial expectations for three consecutive years [4] Group 5: Cost Factors - Oil prices have been declining, with a year-on-year decrease of 11% from January to November, which is expected to reduce operational costs for airlines significantly [5]