蔡昉：人工智能“对标”高质量发展目标，需要制度环境的支撑

Core Insights - The global investment trend in artificial intelligence (AI) is significant, with predictions indicating that over 90% of the U.S. GDP growth this year will stem from AI investments [1] - The discussion at the Taihu World Cultural Forum highlighted the dual nature of AI development as both a revolution and a potential bubble, emphasizing that the current investment wave in AI is unlikely to cool down [1][3] Group 1: Economic Implications - East Asian countries, including China, Japan, and South Korea, face challenges such as low birth rates, labor shortages, and high aging populations, necessitating AI to enhance labor productivity and reduce input costs [3] - The ability of AI to align with China's high-quality development goals is crucial for its sustainable growth [3] Group 2: Institutional Support - The development of AI requires a supportive institutional environment to balance its creative and destructive potential, which can be achieved through reforms [3][5] - The need for institutional arrangements to ensure that the benefits of productivity growth from AI are equitably shared among all residents, including the elderly, is emphasized [5] Group 3: Labor Market Dynamics - The projected growth of China's "support ratio" (the ratio of working-age population to elderly) is expected to outpace the increase in the elderly dependency ratio by 5.6% annually by 2035, indicating a potential for productivity to overcome aging challenges [5] - The urbanization gap in China presents a significant opportunity for labor supply and productivity enhancement, with potential reforms in the household registration system (hukou) capable of unlocking millions of laborers [7]