盘点美政府“停摆”的经济民生“坏账”

Economic Impact - The recent government shutdown lasted for 43 days, marking a record duration, and has left significant economic and social damages, referred to as "bad debts" [1][3] - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that if the shutdown lasts for 6 weeks, the economic loss could reach $11 billion, and if it extends to 8 weeks, losses could rise to $14 billion, with a potential decrease in GDP growth rate by 1 to 2 percentage points in Q4 [7] Social Consequences - The shutdown has severely impacted low-income groups, with 42 million Americans affected by disruptions in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, leading to emotional distress among recipients [2][3] - Federal employees have also faced wage delays, with some resorting to food banks, highlighting the human cost of political stalemate [2] Transportation Sector - The aviation sector experienced significant disruptions, with thousands of flights delayed or canceled, leading to chaos at airports and raising safety concerns due to air traffic controller shortages [4][5] - The American Airlines Association reported that approximately 5.2 million passengers were affected by flight delays or cancellations since the shutdown began [5] Long-term Economic Outlook - Analysts suggest that the recurring nature of government shutdowns, driven by increasing political polarization, complicates consensus on critical issues like government funding, potentially leading to long-term economic repercussions [7] - The inability to recover lost economic activities, such as canceled flights and missed dining reservations, further exacerbates the economic fallout from the shutdown [7]