蔡昉：这一轮AI投资热“浇不冷”

Core Insights - The current wave of AI investment is seen as both a revolution and a potential bubble, but it is unlikely to cool down due to pressing demands for productivity improvements, geopolitical competition, and the necessity for companies to adopt AI to remain competitive [2][3] Group 1: AI Investment Drivers - East Asian countries face challenges such as declining birth rates, labor shortages, and accelerated aging, making AI a critical solution for enhancing labor productivity [2] - Geopolitical tensions have made AI capabilities a key determinant of national power, prompting countries to vigorously pursue AI advancements [2] - Major companies view AI technology as a symbol of technological leadership and market position in the context of strategic competition [2] - Organizations recognize that failing to embrace AI could lead to competitive disadvantages and potential obsolescence [2] Group 2: The Dual Nature of AI - AI is characterized as a "creative destruction," meaning it brings both innovation and disruption, which is inherent in any technological advancement [2][3] - Historical patterns indicate that disruptive technology cycles are often accompanied by investment booms and bubbles, which are difficult to avoid [3] Group 3: Productivity and Economic Growth - The "benchmarking" concept is proposed, emphasizing that AI should be directed towards enhancing productivity to overcome supply-side growth constraints [4] - China's economic growth is increasingly limited by demand-side factors, particularly due to population decline and aging, necessitating AI solutions to boost consumer demand [5] - The Solow Paradox suggests that while new technologies can enhance productivity, actual improvements may not be realized uniformly across different sectors and regions, leading to a widening productivity gap [4] Group 4: Institutional Framework for AI - The successful implementation of AI requires a supportive institutional environment, which can be achieved through reforms that balance the creative and destructive aspects of new technologies [6] - Institutional reforms are necessary to ensure that AI contributes positively to societal needs, such as supporting the elderly and addressing demographic challenges [6]