北大国发院发布《中国可持续航空燃料规模化发展路径》研究报告

Core Viewpoint - The report released by Peking University's National School of Development emphasizes the importance of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) for the decarbonization of the aviation industry in China and outlines a policy path for its large-scale development [1][2]. Industry Development Status - The aviation sector accounts for 2%-3% of global carbon emissions, and its share is expected to rise as other industries transition to low-carbon practices. SAF is crucial for achieving carbon reduction targets [2]. - China has achieved regular application of SAF and established an SAF industry alliance, with significant breakthroughs in certain production processes. However, the industry faces challenges such as high costs and the need for coordinated policies, technological advancements, and standardization [2][3]. Economic Potential - If the blending ratio of SAF reaches 5%, it could reduce carbon emissions by 6.7 million tons annually. By 2050, global SAF demand is projected to exceed 360 million tons, with China having abundant resources for SAF production [4]. - Despite having a production capacity of 1 million tons, China's SAF industry is still in its early stages and faces market development bottlenecks, including a lack of effective pricing mechanisms [4]. Policy Recommendations - The report proposes six core policy recommendations to support the SAF industry: 1. Strengthen strategic planning and top-level design to clarify blending targets and stabilize market demand 2. Implement market mechanisms to share the "premium" of SAF 3. Include SAF in mandatory government green procurement lists 4. Establish long-term procurement agreements and market pricing mechanisms 5. Optimize supply chain costs and efficiency 6. Develop SAF standards and certification systems in line with international practices [5]. Short-term and Long-term Outlook - In the short term, clear blending targets and government green procurement will stabilize market demand, while market mechanisms will alleviate cost pressures on airlines, facilitating the transition of SAF from pilot projects to regular use [6]. - In the medium to long term, long-term procurement agreements and pricing mechanisms will stabilize producer expectations, promote capacity expansion, and enhance technological progress, leading to a gradual decrease in SAF costs and increased competitiveness [6].