南京聚隆(300644)：中国改性塑料领域代表性企业 积极切入新兴赛道

Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 1.996 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 23.78%, and a net profit of 101 million yuan, which is a 79.46% increase year-on-year [1] Industry Overview - The modified plastics industry is moving towards high-end domestic substitution, with a projected production of 35.46 million tons in 2025. Currently, the focus is on mid-to-low-end products, but there is potential for upgrading to high-performance and multifunctional materials [1] - The upstream market, including synthetic resins like polypropylene and polyethylene, is expected to maintain a weak oscillation pattern in the short term, while the appliance sector currently shows the highest demand, with the automotive industry anticipated to become a primary growth driver in the medium to long term [1] Company Developments - The company focuses on high-performance modified plastics, which is its largest product category, and has been optimizing its product structure to enhance technical added value, resulting in steady growth in revenue and gross margin [1] - The second major product line is thermoplastic elastomers, where the company is accelerating the development of differentiated product lines to break foreign monopolies and achieve import substitution [1] - The subsidiary, 聚隆复材, is concentrating on large-scale manufacturing of carbon fiber composite components and complete drones, having established a one-stop production line for composite structural parts and complete assembly of various aircraft models [1] - The company has also ventured into new emerging sectors such as robotics, aerospace, and low-altitude economy, collaborating with leading clients for material validation and solutions [2] - A new subsidiary, 江苏聚隆纬伦技术有限公司, was established to advance the research and development of smart robots and the application of company materials in the robotics industry [2] - The company launched a new aircraft structure, the V1000 tilt-rotor hybrid aircraft, which integrates "tilt-rotor + hybrid power" technologies, achieving breakthroughs in lightweight, high strength, and fatigue resistance [2] Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 2.82 billion yuan, 3.08 billion yuan, and 3.23 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profits of 160 million yuan, 220 million yuan, and 250 million yuan for the same years [2] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 1.41 yuan, 1.95 yuan, and 2.24 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 25, 18, and 16 times [2] - Given the company's leading position in high-performance modified plastics and unique advantages in applications within robotics, aerospace, and low-altitude economy, a target price of 42.90 yuan is set for 2026, with a "buy" rating assigned [2]