利好缺失 华南液化气市场或再现颓势

Core Viewpoint - The liquefied gas market in South China experienced a volatile increase in early November, but is expected to trend downward in the latter half of the month due to increased supply, lower import costs, and weak demand [1][5]. Supply Dynamics - In early November, the price of liquefied gas in South China rose by 100-150 yuan per ton due to reduced supply from both domestic refineries and import terminals [3]. - The decrease in supply was attributed to the commissioning of the ethylene unit at Guangxi Petrochemical, which increased self-consumption of liquefied gas, and a slight decline in the release of civil gas from Beihai [3]. - The overall import volume was around 130,000 tons, with delays in some import terminals in the Pearl River Delta and Chaoshan regions exacerbating supply tightness [3]. Future Supply Outlook - After November 10, the resumption of unloading at Pearl River Delta terminals is expected to replenish the market supply [3]. - In the latter half of November, supply pressures are anticipated to increase due to several factors: the suspension of pipeline transportation by CNOOC Huizhou Refinery, planned maintenance at Maoming Petrochemical, and the conclusion of repairs at Guangxi Petrochemical in early December [3]. - The expected daily increase in civil gas supply could rise from 600-700 tons to over 2,000 tons, particularly noticeable at the end of November and early December [3]. Demand and International Market Conditions - Terminal demand has been declining for several years, and despite entering the peak demand season, overall performance remains below expectations, which dampens the replenishment enthusiasm of downstream enterprises [5]. - The international market is also weak, with expected prices for December CP propane at $468 per ton and butane at $462 per ton, indicating a slight decrease in import costs compared to November [5]. - The combination of increased supply, anticipated lower import costs, and weak seasonal demand is expected to lead to a downward trend in liquefied gas prices in South China, potentially reaching seasonal lows again [5].