Nebius Stock Is Up Over 200% This Year, but Its $3 Billion Meta Deal Still Changes Everything

Core Viewpoint - Nebius Group reported significant revenue growth but also wider losses due to increased capital expenditures for AI infrastructure development, while securing a major deal with Meta Platforms for AI services [1][2][4][7]. Financial Performance - Revenues for the third quarter reached $146.1 million, a 355% increase year-over-year, with a year-to-date revenue increase of 437% from $56.3 million in 2024 to $302 million in 2025 [4]. - The company reported a net loss of $119.6 million, a 174% increase from last year's loss of $43.6 million, with an adjusted net loss of $100.4 million compared to $39.7 million in the same quarter last year [4]. Capital Expenditures and Infrastructure - Nebius spent $955.5 million on capital expenditures in the quarter, up from $172.1 million a year ago, and has plans to increase its data center power capacity from 220 megawatts to between 800 megawatts and 1 gigawatt by the end of 2026 [5]. - The CEO emphasized that 2025 is a foundational year for future growth, aiming for a strong position in the AI cloud market by 2026 [6]. Strategic Partnerships - The company announced a $3 billion deal with Meta Platforms to provide AI infrastructure over five years, following a previous deal with Microsoft valued between $17.4 billion and $19.4 billion [2][7]. - Both deals are expected to significantly impact Nebius' financials by 2026, aiding in data center expansion and profitability [8]. Market Outlook - Nebius anticipates an annualized run rate revenue between $7 billion and $9 billion by the end of 2026, positioning itself as a key player in the rapidly growing AI market, projected to expand from $279.22 billion in 2024 to $3.5 trillion by 2033 [7][8].