Irish corporate taxes to avoid tariff hit but risks rise, watchdog says

Group 1 - Most of Ireland's major corporate taxpayers, primarily U.S. multinationals, have not yet faced the direct impact of U.S. tariffs, but the outlook for corporate tax revenue is increasingly uncertain due to American trade policies [1] - Irish corporate tax receipts have increased sevenfold since 2014, now accounting for nearly one-third of all taxes collected, significantly transforming public finances [1] - The pharmaceutical and technology sectors, which make up about 87% of corporate tax payments from U.S.-owned firms, have so far avoided U.S. tariffs [2] Group 2 - Pharmaceutical exports to the U.S. have surged due to frontloading, with shipments exceeding the total for all of 2024 by April, as companies prepare for potential trade barriers [2] - There is a structural increase in exports of an active ingredient used in weight-loss drugs, which is boosting short-term corporate tax receipts [3] - The outlook for the pharmaceutical sector remains "very uncertain," with risks including the long-term goal of tariffs to promote more pharmaceutical manufacturing in the U.S. [3] Group 3 - Multiple factors, including potential tariffs, drug price reforms, new blockbuster drugs, and strong underlying demand, could significantly influence the value of Ireland's pharmaceutical exports to the U.S. and, consequently, corporate tax receipts [4] - Corporate tax revenues from the pharmaceutical sector could experience substantial fluctuations, either increasing or decreasing significantly [4] - Other manufacturing sectors, such as drinks and medical devices, may see a decline in corporate tax due to tariffs, but they only accounted for 4% of Irish corporate revenues in 2024 [4]