黄金站稳4200美元上方 三重利好支撑中期看涨结构

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have surged to a three-week high of $4,213, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December due to economic growth concerns exacerbated by the recent government shutdown [1][2][3]. Group 1: Economic Impact - The U.S. government shutdown, which lasted from October 1, has been the longest in history, causing delays in key economic data releases [2]. - Economists estimate that the shutdown may have reduced quarterly GDP growth by 1.5% to 2% [3]. - Job losses in October reached 9,100, with a notable decrease of 22,200 positions in government sectors [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The combination of a weakening dollar, expectations of Fed rate cuts, and central banks increasing gold reserves has contributed to the upward trend in gold prices [3]. - Despite the end of the government shutdown and a recovery in risk sentiment, gold prices remain above $4,200, indicating strong bullish control [1][3]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Gold has broken through the key resistance level of $4,200 and is positioned to challenge the $4,250 to $4,300 range [5][6]. - Technical indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and MACD are in positive territory, suggesting strong upward momentum [6]. - Key support levels are identified between $4,180 and $4,100, with potential for a technical sell-off if these levels are breached [6][7]. Group 4: Central Bank Actions - The Russian central bank reported a record increase in gold reserves valued at $92 billion over the past year, totaling $299.8 billion, despite a slight decrease in actual gold holdings [4]. - Concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve have also influenced gold prices, with analysts suggesting that political actions could further boost gold [2].