折扣减少、圣诞树短缺……关税冲击美国假日季消费

Core Insights - The upcoming holiday shopping season in the U.S. is expected to be challenging for consumers due to inflation and tariffs impacting prices and product availability [1] Group 1: Price Increases Due to Tariffs - Tariffs implemented by the Trump administration are projected to increase consumer costs by approximately $132 per person during the holiday season [3] - Specific categories affected include electronics, where consumers may pay an additional $186, clothing and accessories at $82, personal care products at $14, and food and candy at $12 [3] - Pricefx reports that some product categories have seen price increases of 30% to 40%, particularly in clothing and textiles, with shoe prices rising by 37% and clothing costs by 35% [4] Group 2: Retail Strategies and Consumer Behavior - Retailers are adopting cautious inventory strategies, reducing stock and orders, and extending payment terms by 5% to 10% due to unpredictable tariffs [4] - The prevailing strategy among retailers is to avoid discounting heavily, opting instead to sell out of stock rather than clear inventory at reduced prices [4][6] - Discounts during the holiday season may be less significant, with many promotions based on prior price increases, making them appear more substantial than they are [6] Group 3: Shortages in Holiday Decorations - There is a notable shortage of Christmas trees and decorations, with inventory levels down by double digits compared to previous years [8] - The CEO of National Tree Company indicates that popular items may sell out quickly due to reduced orders during the critical mid-year procurement period [8] - The overall price increase for Christmas trees and decorations is estimated at around 10% this year, driven by tariff-related uncertainties [8]