WTO：与AI相关商品贸易措施“限制数量”逐年增加

Core Insights - The rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI) is expected to significantly reshape global trade, with projections indicating that AI could drive global service trade growth by nearly 40% and global GDP growth by 12% to 13% by 2040 [1][12]. Group 1: AI and Trade Growth - AI-related goods trade reached $2.9 trillion in 2022 but slightly decreased to $2.3 trillion in 2023, with a notable increase in imports driven by intermediate goods such as computer components [2]. - The trade growth of AI-related goods was robust in the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 20%, despite AI goods accounting for less than 10% of total global goods trade [2][3]. - The majority of AI-related trade growth is concentrated in Asia, which accounted for nearly two-thirds of the total growth in AI-related trade in the first half of 2025 [3]. Group 2: Cost Reduction and Efficiency - AI is recognized as a crucial catalyst for trade-driven growth, optimizing supply chains, automating customs clearance, and reducing language barriers, thereby lowering trade costs [11]. - A joint survey by WTO and ICC revealed that 70% of businesses expect AI to reduce trade costs, with small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) being more optimistic than larger firms [11]. - In logistics, compliance, and communication, a significant percentage of SMEs anticipate substantial cost reductions due to AI, with 44% expecting at least a 25% reduction in logistics costs [11]. Group 3: Trade Policy and Digital Divide - The report highlights an increase in non-tariff measures, particularly quantity restrictions on AI-related goods, which are projected to reach nearly 500 by 2024 [15]. - There is a notable digital divide, with low-income economies lagging in internet access and AI application, as over 26 billion people globally remain unconnected, primarily in developing regions [15][16]. - To bridge the digital divide, international cooperation is deemed essential, with WTO planning to expand the scope of the Information Technology Agreement and promote data rule coordination [16].