第一财经网·2025-11-13 12:37Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery industry is experiencing a significant price surge, particularly in lithium hexafluorophosphate and electrolyte prices, driven by a supply-demand imbalance following a year of industry losses [1][2][3] Price Trends - The lithium electrolyte index rose by 19.41%, reaching a new high since January 2022, with several stocks hitting their historical peaks [1] - Lithium hexafluorophosphate prices have more than doubled since their low in July, with some market quotes exceeding 150,000 yuan/ton, reflecting a 165% increase since the end of July [3][5] - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate also saw an increase, with a reported price of 84,472 yuan/ton, up 1,244 yuan from the previous working day [3] Demand Drivers - The demand for lithium batteries is being fueled by a significant increase in new energy vehicle sales, which reached 11.196 million units from January to September 2025, a year-on-year increase of 34.6% [3] - The energy storage market is also contributing to demand growth, with a 99% year-on-year increase in lithium battery shipments for energy storage, totaling 430 GWh in the first three quarters [4] Supply Constraints - The supply of key raw materials like lithium hexafluorophosphate and electrolytes is tightening due to industry consolidation and the exit of smaller players, leading to a supply-demand mismatch [3][4] - Major manufacturers are cautious about expanding production capacity, with a consensus that the market will remain in a tight balance until at least 2026 [6][7] Future Outlook - The sustainability of the current price increase is contingent on the growth rate of demand and the pace of new capacity release, with potential risks of oversupply if demand does not keep up [5][7] - Analysts expect that the demand for energy storage will remain robust, with projections of 300 GWh of new storage installations in China next year, driven by improved economic viability and global trends [7]