这些指标不仅事关美国消费者，更关系美国假日经济是否放缓

Group 1: Holiday Spending Outlook - The upcoming holiday spending outlook in the U.S. is impacted by inflation, labor market slowdown, and tariff factors, with only consumers aged 65 and above planning to increase spending on gifts and non-gifts compared to last year [1] - The Conference Board survey indicates that younger consumers (under 35) are the primary reason for the decline in gift spending, while consumers aged 35-45 and 55-64 are tightening their budgets in non-gift areas [2][5] - The survey predicts that the average holiday-related spending per consumer in the U.S. will be $990 in 2025, a 6.9% decrease from $1,063 in 2024, and lower than 2022 and 2021 levels [6] Group 2: Consumer Behavior Changes - Consumers are becoming more pragmatic, favoring essential gifts over desired items, with gift spending expected to drop to $650 this year, the lowest since 2022 [6] - The budget for non-gift items, including food and decorations, is expected to decrease by 12% to $340 [6] - There is a notable increase in the intention to purchase toys and games, vacation and travel products, and gift cards in 2025, with toys and games rising to the top of the list [7] Group 3: Employment and Retail Dynamics - Retailers are hiring fewer seasonal employees, with predictions of less than 500,000 temporary hires in the last quarter of 2025, the lowest since 2009 [12] - Major retailers like Walmart and Target are cautious about hiring, reflecting a cautious outlook for the holiday shopping season due to ongoing inflation and economic uncertainty [13] - The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index has dropped to its lowest level since June 2022, indicating declining consumer confidence [13] Group 4: Economic and Trade Factors - The logistics and trade sectors report that tariffs and inflation are contributing to a decline in domestic demand, with a noted decrease in consumer spending capacity [10] - The retail sector is maintaining low inventory levels due to economic uncertainties and tariff situations, with a "K" shaped recovery trend becoming more apparent [11] - The Oxford Economics survey indicates a one-third probability of the U.S. entering a recession in the next 12 months, with trade policy being a major concern for businesses [15]