重新考虑新兴市场的三个理由

Core Viewpoint - Emerging markets have shown strong performance in both stocks and bonds as of 2025, with emerging market stocks recording their best performance in nearly seven years, indicating heightened investor interest and enthusiasm [1]. Group 1: Valuation and Investment Logic - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio difference indicates that emerging market stocks are relatively undervalued compared to developed markets, with the current P/E ratio difference exceeding its 20-year historical average by nearly two standard deviations, suggesting an attractive entry point despite recent strong performance [1]. Group 2: Fund Flows - Over the past three years, the net inflow of funds into emerging market equity funds has lagged behind that of U.S. funds relative to their asset management scale. However, the strong performance of emerging market stocks in 2025, partly aided by a weaker dollar, shows signs of a potential reversal, as emerging market funds are beginning to attract more capital, reflecting a shift in investor sentiment [4][6]. Group 3: Central Bank Policies - Emerging market central banks maintain significantly higher real interest rates compared to the Federal Reserve, indicating greater monetary policy flexibility. This suggests that emerging markets have more room to implement interest rate cuts, which could structurally benefit emerging market assets, while the Federal Reserve remains cautious amid labor market weaknesses and rising inflation risks [6]. Group 4: Investment Strategy Recommendations - Investors are encouraged to reassess their allocations to avoid missing potential opportunities in emerging markets, which have been structurally underweighted due to poor performance in recent years [7]. - Selective stock picking is advised, as there is significant differentiation among countries due to political, social, and industrial factors. Potential winners include regions involved in the AI supply chain and Central European countries benefiting from automotive trends [7]. - Active management strategies are recommended over passive management, as active managers may better identify attractive companies in emerging markets and avoid those with risks outweighing potential returns [7]. Group 5: Conclusion - The attractive relative valuation of emerging markets provides an excellent entry point for investors. The rebound in capital inflows into emerging market stocks confirms a recovery in investor sentiment, and the higher real interest rates compared to developed markets offer greater flexibility for structural policy adjustments, making emerging markets worthy of increased investor attention [8].