北大国发院报告：破局高价瓶颈，六项建议推动SAF规模化发展

Core Viewpoint - The report from Peking University's National School of Development emphasizes the strategic importance of accelerating the development of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) in China, highlighting its potential to significantly reduce carbon emissions and contribute to the country's dual carbon goals [1][2]. Group 1: Importance of SAF - SAF can reduce carbon emissions by 6.7 million tons of CO2 annually if blended at a 5% ratio, which is crucial for achieving China's carbon neutrality targets [1]. - The aviation industry views SAF as essential for meeting emission reduction goals, with IATA predicting that 65% of carbon reductions in aviation by 2050 will come from SAF usage [1]. Group 2: Economic Potential and Resource Advantages - Global demand for SAF is projected to exceed 360 million tons by 2050, with China having significant advantages in resource availability, such as ample kitchen waste oil and agricultural residues [1][2]. - The coupling of the SAF industry with the renewable energy sector presents substantial development potential, promoting a circular economy [1]. Group 3: Current Challenges in the SAF Industry - China's SAF industry is still in its early stages, with a production capacity of 1 million tons, but faces significant challenges compared to global leaders [2]. - The high price of SAF, which has exceeded 20,000 yuan per ton, poses a barrier to market development, as it is several times higher than traditional aviation fuel [2]. Group 4: Policy Recommendations - The report suggests prioritizing demand-side initiatives to ensure market demand for SAF, which is essential for scaling production [3]. - Key policy recommendations include establishing a market-based pricing mechanism, incorporating SAF into government green procurement lists, and creating long-term procurement agreements [3][4]. Group 5: Future Outlook - In the short term, a market-based premium-sharing mechanism could alleviate cost pressures on airlines and facilitate the transition of SAF from pilot projects to regular use [4]. - Long-term, advancements in technologies like Power-to-Liquid (PtL) are expected to enable SAF to compete on price with traditional aviation fuels, solidifying its role as a mainstream aviation fuel choice [4].