Treasuries Stumble as Shutdown Ends and Traders Brace for Swings

Group 1 - The longest government shutdown in US history has ended, leading to small losses in Treasuries and diminishing expectations for a Federal Reserve interest-rate cut next month [1] - Treasury yields increased by as much as three basis points, particularly in tenors sensitive to Fed policy, with the five-year tenor leading the selloff [2] - The ICE BofA MOVE Index, which measures expected bond-market volatility, has risen to a one-month high, indicating potential for sharp swings in the Treasury market as official economic data resumes [4] Group 2 - Investors in the nearly $30 trillion Treasury market have been relying on private data due to the absence of official statistics, with recent ADP Research figures indicating a slowing US jobs market [5] - During the shutdown, Treasuries remained stable, with 10-year note yields fluctuating around the 4% level, contributing to the market's best year since 2020 with a 0.4% return [6]