农大科技IPO上会前夜：营收三连降 募投项目缩水25% “不缺钱”也要募资补流

Core Viewpoint - Shandong Agricultural University Fertilizer Technology Co., Ltd. (referred to as "the company") is facing challenges in its IPO process, with declining revenue, shrinking orders, and pressure on core product prices, despite its leading position in the niche fertilizer market [1][3][4]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue has shown a downward trend from 26.76 billion yuan in 2022 to an estimated 14.95 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 [3][4]. - Net profit figures have remained relatively stable, with 1.01 billion yuan in 2022 and 1.26 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, indicating a situation of "profit increase without revenue increase" [4]. - Revenue from the new fertilizer business decreased from 19.68 billion yuan in 2022 to 19.24 billion yuan in 2024, with average prices dropping from 2842 yuan/ton to 2596 yuan/ton [4]. Order Backlog - The company's order backlog has been declining, with amounts of 6.29 billion yuan in 2022, 4.7 billion yuan in 2023, and further down to 1.40 billion yuan by June 30, 2025 [8]. - The decrease in orders is attributed to falling raw material prices, leading to more conservative purchasing behavior from customers [8]. IPO Fundraising and Project Adjustments - The company plans to raise 4.13 billion yuan through its IPO, down from an initial target of 5.52 billion yuan, with significant cuts to its fundraising projects [9][12]. - The company has canceled the "15,000 tons of micro-ecological preparation series production project" and reduced the amount allocated for working capital by 10 million yuan [12]. Industry Context - The overall industry is not performing well, with the average capacity utilization rate for compound fertilizers in China expected to be only 28.61% in 2024, while new capacity is still being added [13]. - The company has maintained a high dividend payout ratio, distributing 1.8 billion yuan in dividends over the past three years, which raises questions about its cash flow management amid declining revenues [13]. Inventory and Related Transactions - The company's inventory value has been significant, accounting for 30% of current assets, with a notable risk of price declines in the fertilizer market [14]. - The company has faced scrutiny regarding the fairness of pricing in related transactions, particularly with its actual controller's company, which has raised concerns about potential profit transfers [18][19].