沪指再创十年新高 机构称股债相关性正在提升
Xin Hua Cai Jing·2025-11-13 16:03

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a ten-year high, indicating a "healthy bull" market driven by both policy and capital inflows [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated around 4000 points since late October and reached a new ten-year high of 4029.5 points on November 13, closing up 0.73% [2]. - The trading volume in the market has been increasing, reflecting heightened investor sentiment and significant capital inflows [2]. Group 2: Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market is under continuous adjustment pressure, with government bond futures showing a slight decline and most bond yields rising [2]. - On November 13, the 30-year, 10-year, 5-year, and 2-year government bond futures all experienced declines, with the 30-year contract down 0.26% [2]. - The yields on major interbank bonds have mostly increased, with the 10-year government bond yield rising by 0.4 basis points to 1.8050% [2]. Group 3: Correlation Between Stocks and Bonds - The correlation between the 10-year government bond yield and the Shanghai Composite Index has increased from -0.6 at the end of 2024 to 0.3 by early November 2025, indicating a significant enhancement in stock-bond correlation [3]. - The insurance sector's stock asset balance reached 3.07 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 47.6%, contributing to the expansion of the "stock-bond seesaw" effect [3]. Group 4: Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that the "stock-bond seesaw" effect is likely to persist in the short term, with bond risk-return ratios declining and institutional rebalancing behavior potentially continuing [6]. - The central bank's monetary policy remains moderately accommodative, supporting market liquidity [6]. - Future projections indicate that the bond market may exhibit characteristics of "low interest rates + high volatility + a bottom and a ceiling," with a higher probability of a stable or slightly elevated interest rate center [6].