When will mortgage rates go down? Rates are barely moving.

Core Insights - Mortgage rates have increased slightly but are lower than last year, with the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at 6.24%, down 54 basis points from 6.78% a year ago [2][4] - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate twice in 2025, which typically influences mortgage rates, but the correlation is not always direct [5][6] - Current housing market conditions show a high demand for homes, leading to sustained high prices despite slight decreases in mortgage rates [14][15] Mortgage Rate Trends - As of November 13, 2025, the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is at 6.24%, while the 15-year fixed mortgage is at 5.49%, both lower than the previous year [2][12] - The 10-year Treasury yield is at 4.13%, down from 4.43% a year prior, which affects mortgage rates through a spread [11][12] - The spread between the 30-year mortgage rate and the 10-year Treasury yield has decreased from 2.35 percentage points to 2.11 percentage points, contributing to lower mortgage rates [12] Federal Reserve Influence - The Federal Reserve's actions, including two rate cuts in 2025, typically lead to expectations of lower mortgage rates, but historical trends show that rates may not continue to decrease after such cuts [5][8] - Anticipation of rate cuts often leads to a temporary decline in mortgage rates, but this is not guaranteed to persist [6][8] Housing Market Dynamics - The median sale price of single-family homes has increased from $208,400 in Q1 2009 to $410,800 by Q2 2025, indicating a long-term upward trend in home prices [15] - The current imbalance between buyers and available homes keeps prices high, particularly in affordable segments for first-time buyers [14][15] - Even with potential economic downturns, demand for homes may remain high if interest rates drop, as more buyers will seek to lock in lower rates [16] Buyer Strategies - Buyers are encouraged to consider various strategies, such as purchasing smaller homes or condos, to enter the market despite high prices and rates [18][24] - Exploring options like fixer-uppers or longer commutes to more affordable areas can also be beneficial [22][23] - Rate buydown options may provide temporary relief from high mortgage rates, making home purchases more feasible [26] Future Rate Predictions - The Mortgage Bankers Association predicts the 30-year fixed rate will remain around 6.4% through 2026, while Fannie Mae is more optimistic, forecasting a drop to 5.9% by the end of next year [27]