Australia eyes Indonesia’s nickel in its play for critical mineral supremacy

Core Insights - Indonesia is the world's largest producer of nickel, holding 42.3% of global reserves and home to significant deposits like Sorowako and Weda Bay [2][3] - Chinese companies dominate Indonesia's nickel production, owning approximately 40% of mined nickel and holding stakes in 75 out of 357 nickel projects [1] - The Australian government is keen to enhance its role in the global supply chain for critical minerals, particularly nickel, to support its electric vehicle (EV) industry [5][6] Production and Market Dynamics - Indonesia's nickel production increased from over 1,400 tonnes in 2022 to nearly 2,000 tonnes in 2024, contributing to a global nickel surplus expected to last until 2027-28 [9][13] - The average nickel price fell to $16,234 per million tonnes in Q3 2024, a 20.4% decrease compared to the same period in 2023, due to high production levels [10] - Indonesia's share of global mined nickel surged from 16% in 2017 to over 50% by 2024, driven by its ability to undercut competitors [13][14] Policy and Regulatory Environment - The Indonesian mining ministry announced a reduction in the validity term for nickel mining quotas from three years to one, which has raised concerns among miners about potential delays [11][12] - Indonesia's "hilirisasi" policy aims to promote domestic processing of minerals while reducing reliance on coal, but it raises questions about balancing environmental goals with economic benefits [16][21] Environmental and Social Considerations - Nickel mining in Indonesia has led to significant environmental degradation, including deforestation and pollution in ecologically sensitive areas like Raja Ampat [17][19] - Reports indicate that ESG standards in Indonesian nickel mining are largely voluntary, and stronger compliance could attract more investment from the US and Australia [20][21]