野村中国首席经济学家陆挺：我国目前利率水平已经足够低

Core Viewpoint - The current low interest rate in China has limited effectiveness in stimulating the real economy, and traditional monetary policy is less impactful compared to non-traditional measures [1][5]. Group 1: Monetary Policy - The Chinese government has only reduced policy interest rates once this year by 0.1 percentage points, indicating a cautious approach to monetary easing [1]. - The ten-year government bond yield in China is currently at 1.8%, making it one of the lowest in the world, which suggests that further rate cuts may not significantly boost the economy [5]. - Non-traditional monetary policies, such as loans from the Development Bank and measures to stabilize the capital market, are expected to play a more significant role in the economy [5]. Group 2: Consumption and Economic Growth - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, real estate has been impacted, leading to a strategic focus on consumption in the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, although more discussion is needed on how to stimulate consumption [1]. - The government has implemented various consumer promotion policies, including a total of 300 billion yuan in central funding for consumption incentives, with expectations for these policies to continue into next year [5]. - There is a recognition that the potential for further stimulating consumption through existing measures is limited, necessitating more structural and institutional reforms [5]. Group 3: Social Security Reform - There is a call for accelerating reforms in the social security system, particularly in the pension sector, to support consumption-driven economic growth [6]. - The improvement of the pension and healthcare systems is deemed crucial for an economy that relies on consumption as a growth pillar [6].