Core Viewpoint - The domestic aluminum market is experiencing a strong upward trend, with the main contract reaching a new annual high of 22,100 yuan/ton, driven by multiple macroeconomic factors and supply constraints [1][3]. Group 1: Price Trends - Aluminum prices have shown a fluctuating upward trend since late October, with an average price of 21,000 yuan/ton in October, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 1.26% and a year-on-year increase of 1.40% [2]. - As of November 10, the average price of domestic A00 aluminum was 21,500 yuan/ton, marking a month-on-month increase of 0.14% and a rise of 690 yuan/ton from the October low, representing a 3.32% increase [2]. Group 2: Macro Factors Supporting Prices - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points on October 30 has alleviated global liquidity pressures and improved market risk appetite [3]. - The consensus reached in the US-China tariff negotiations, including the reduction of certain aluminum product trade barriers, has eased concerns about export restrictions, benefiting aluminum processing enterprises [3]. - The stabilization of energy costs due to the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East has further supported the aluminum industry [3]. Group 3: Supply Constraints - The supply-demand balance is tight, with significant constraints on the supply side, particularly due to transportation limitations in the northwest during the heating season, leading to reduced aluminum ingot shipments to East China [4]. - The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum has reached the policy limit of 45 million tons, with limited new capacity additions, maintaining an operating rate above 96% [4]. Group 4: Demand Dynamics - The demand side is showing signs of differentiation, with a slight decline in operating rates among downstream processing enterprises as the peak season ends, leading to reduced terminal orders [5]. - The construction sector is experiencing a drop in operating rates to around 50% due to winter impacts, while demand in the aluminum cable sector remains stable but is slowing due to rising aluminum prices [5]. Group 5: Future Price Outlook - The aluminum price is expected to exhibit a high-level oscillation pattern from November to December, with support from macro factors and low inventory levels, but facing downward pressure from seasonal demand decline [6][7]. - The projected price range for A00 aluminum from November to December is between 20,500 yuan/ton and 22,000 yuan/ton, with potential for new highs in November before a gradual weakening towards the end of the month [7].
铝价屡创年内新高 四季度市场或高位震荡
Zheng Quan Shi Bao·2025-11-13 17:56