中国政府债务管理机制的优化

Core Insights - The article discusses the increasing attention on government debt in China as a key variable in macroeconomic operations, highlighting its scale, structure, function, and sustainability amidst a complex economic environment [1] Government Bond Types and Maturity Structure - The types of government bonds in China are primarily classified into deficit debt and self-repaying debt, with a predominance of medium-term bonds and a relative scarcity of short-term bonds [2] - Government bonds serve as a source of liquidity in the financial market and are an important component of wealth for non-financial sectors, but their role in wealth composition for residents remains underexplored [2] Debt Growth Rate Comparison - Since the 21st century, there has been a global focus on debt crises, with a notable increase in government debt in China, particularly local government debt, while the debt growth rate for non-financial sectors, including households and enterprises, has been declining [3] Bond Purchaser Structure - The identity of bond purchasers significantly influences the macroeconomic impact of bond issuance, with non-financial sector purchases involving only fund transfers and no monetary creation, while central bank purchases can create money [4] - In China, commercial banks are the primary holders of government bonds, which has implications for inflation effects [6] Debt Sustainability Analysis - Debt sustainability is a long-standing and contentious issue, with international standards suggesting a deficit rate not exceeding 3% and a debt-to-GDP ratio not exceeding 60% [11] - The sustainability of debt can be assessed through various metrics, including the ratio of debt to earnings before interest and taxes for enterprises and the ratio of debt to payable income streams at the macro level [11] Role of Central Banks in Debt Management - The role of central banks in managing government bonds and liquidity is crucial, with recent reports emphasizing the need for liquidity management to align with economic growth and price stability [12] - Central banks are increasingly focusing on asset price stability and have adapted their policies to enhance financial market stability, particularly in the context of government bond management [13]