Allegiant Stock Price Rises 19% Since Q3 Earnings Release

Core Insights - Allegiant Travel Company (ALGT) shares have increased by 19% following the release of its third-quarter 2025 earnings, primarily due to an upward revision of its full-year earnings guidance [1] - The adjusted consolidated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is now expected to exceed $3.00, up from a previous estimate of above $2.25 [1] - The adjusted EPS for the airline segment is anticipated to be above $4.35, compared to the prior estimate of above $3.25 [1] Financial Performance - ALGT reported a third-quarter 2025 loss of $2.09 per share, which was wider than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $1.84 per share and greater than the loss of $2.02 per share in the same quarter last year [2][9] - Operating revenues for the quarter were $561.9 million, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $580.4 million and reflecting a 0.1% year-over-year decline [2] - Passenger revenues, which constituted 87.9% of total revenues, increased by 1.1% year-over-year [2] Operational Metrics - Air traffic, measured in revenue passenger miles, grew by 8.7% year-over-year, while capacity, measured in available seat miles (ASMs), increased by 10.2% [3] - The load factor decreased to 84.3% from 85.6% as traffic growth did not keep pace with capacity expansion [3] - Airline operating costs per available seat mile, excluding fuel, fell by 4.7% year-over-year to 8.47 cents [4] Cost and Liquidity - The average fuel cost per gallon decreased by 4.9% year-over-year to $2.55 [4] - As of September 30, 2025, Allegiant's total unrestricted cash and investments amounted to $991.2 million, up from $852.7 million at the end of the previous quarter [5] - Long-term debt and finance lease obligations totaled $1.78 billion, slightly up from $1.77 billion in the prior quarter [5] Future Guidance - For the fourth quarter of 2025, scheduled service ASMs are expected to increase by 10% year-over-year, with total system ASMs projected to rise by 9.5% [6] - Adjusted earnings per share for Q4 is anticipated to be in the range of $1.50 to $2.50, with an expected adjusted operating margin of 10% to 12% [6] - For the full year 2025, scheduled service ASMs are expected to increase by 13%, and total system ASMs are projected to rise by 12.5% [7]