Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin has fallen below the $100,000 mark amid deteriorating risk sentiment on Wall Street and significant sell-offs in tech stocks, leading to a loss of over $450 billion in market value since early October [1][3]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Trends - The cryptocurrency market has entered a "confirmed bear market" phase, indicated by weakening ETF inflows, ongoing selling by long-term holders, and low retail investor interest [3]. - Bitcoin's next key support level is set at approximately $93,000, as identified by 10x Research [3]. - The correlation between Bitcoin and traditional assets has increased, contributing to its price decline in the absence of positive narratives for cryptocurrencies [3]. Group 2: Derivatives Market and Investor Behavior - There is a rising demand for put options with strike prices below $100,000, particularly around $90,000 and $95,000, indicating heightened hedging activity among investors [4]. - Despite Bitcoin's year-to-date increase of about 5% and a projected rise of over 40% post-2024 U.S. elections, its upward momentum has significantly slowed, with institutional interest waning [4]. - A pivotal moment occurred in early October when nearly $19 billion in crypto leverage positions were liquidated in a single day, triggering a chain reaction of price declines [4]. Group 3: Historical Context and Future Outlook - Historical data suggests that the current downtrend may not have reached its bottom, with previous bear markets in 2024 and early 2025 resulting in declines of 30% to 40% [4]. - Bitcoin has retraced over 20% from its 2025 peak, which is insufficient to signal a true bottom [4]. - The market is currently operating below key long-term moving averages, which have historically indicated turning points in the crypto cycle, suggesting ongoing momentum decay [4].
机构称加密市场已确定进入熊市阶段 下一个关键支撑在9.3万美元附近
智通财经网·2025-11-13 22:18