美联储鹰鸽分化加剧，戴利称12月是否降息未定

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision on whether to cut interest rates in December is still uncertain, with officials expressing differing opinions on the future of interest rates amid persistent inflation and a weakening labor market [1][2]. Group 1: Interest Rate Outlook - Mary Daly, President of the San Francisco Fed, stated that it is too early to conclude whether the Fed will cut rates in December, emphasizing an open-minded approach as more data will be released before the meeting [1]. - The Fed's recent decision to lower rates by 25 basis points saw dissent among officials, with one advocating for no change and another for a 50 basis point cut [1]. - Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack expressed concerns that further rate cuts could undermine the Fed's commitment to achieving a 2% inflation target [1]. Group 2: Inflation and Labor Market - Daly noted that inflation, when excluding tariff impacts, is closer to the Fed's 2% target but remains stubbornly high, while the labor market has shown clear signs of slowing [2]. - The recent rate cuts in September and October were intended to stabilize risks in the labor market, but there are growing concerns about continued weakening in labor demand [2]. Group 3: Communication and Policy Goals - Daly emphasized the importance of clear communication from the central bank regarding its balance sheet operations and the multiple roles it plays [2]. - She highlighted the need for policymakers to distinguish their objectives in different scenarios, such as providing liquidity during crises versus stimulating growth during recessions [2]. Group 4: Balance Sheet Management - Since 2022, the Fed has been gradually reducing its balance sheet, but it announced a halt to this "passive shrinking" due to rising short-term financing rates indicating tightening market liquidity [3]. - New York Fed President John Williams indicated that the level of reserves in the banking system will soon fall to what is considered "adequate," potentially leading the Fed to gradually resume asset purchases [3].