Crude Prices Tumble as OPEC Projects a Global Crude Surplus

Core Insights - Crude oil and gasoline prices are experiencing significant declines, with crude oil reaching a three-week low due to a global supply glut and strong dollar [1][2] - OPEC has revised its Q3 global oil market estimates from a deficit to a surplus, now projecting a 500,000 bpd surplus compared to a previous estimate of a -400,000 bpd deficit [2] - The US Senate has passed a temporary resolution to fund the government, which is expected to support economic growth and energy demand [3] Supply and Demand Dynamics - China's crude imports from January to October increased by 3.1% year-on-year to 471 million metric tons, providing some support for crude prices [4] - OPEC+ plans to increase production by 137,000 bpd in December but will pause further hikes in Q1 2026 due to the emerging global oil surplus [5] - OPEC's crude production rose by 50,000 bpd to 29.07 million bpd, marking the highest level in 2.5 years [5] Geopolitical Factors - Reports of potential US military action against Venezuela, the world's 12th largest oil producer, have provided additional support for oil prices [4]