Metals Focus：关税不确定性叠加供需基本面稳健 维持对白银价格的看涨预期

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices experienced significant volatility in mid to late October, with a nearly 40% increase over two months, peaking at $54.48 per ounce on October 17, followed by a sharp decline of about 16% to a recent low of $45.56 per ounce on October 28. Despite these fluctuations, silver has risen approximately 67% year-to-date, marking its strongest annual performance since 2010 [1] Group 1: Price Movements and Market Dynamics - The recent surge in silver prices was primarily driven by severe liquidity tightening in the London market, exacerbated by tariff-related silver flows to the U.S., a significant increase in demand in India ahead of the Diwali festival, and strong investment buying [2] - As of the end of September, silver inventories at CME certified warehouses peaked at over 530 million ounces but have since decreased by more than 44 million ounces, with expected monthly outflows in October potentially reaching historical highs [2] - The recent decline in Indian demand and a significant drop in local silver premiums have contributed to easing liquidity pressures in the London market [2] Group 2: Economic Factors and Future Outlook - Optimism regarding U.S.-China trade relations and cautious statements from the Federal Reserve have reduced investor interest in safe-haven assets like silver and gold [3] - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to lower interest rates by 25 basis points has led to a decrease in the implied probability of further rate cuts in December from nearly 100% to about 70% [3] - Factors expected to drive capital inflows into the precious metals market are anticipated to persist until 2026, with ongoing rate cuts reducing the opportunity cost of holding precious metals, thereby supporting prices [3] Group 3: Supply and Demand Fundamentals - Ongoing tariff uncertainties and a robust supply-demand balance for silver are expected to provide continued support for silver prices [5] - Concerns regarding government debt among major economies and geopolitical tensions are likely to reinforce market demand for safe-haven assets, indirectly supporting silver prices through its correlation with gold [5] - The silver market is expected to maintain a supply-demand gap, with limited refining capacity for recycled silver, contributing to sustained physical supply tightness [5]