机构：铝行业或将维持高景气

Core Viewpoint - The domestic aluminum market is experiencing a strong upward trend, with the main contract reaching a new annual high of 22,100 yuan/ton, driven by macroeconomic support and concerns over supply due to electricity shortages abroad [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The aluminum price has shown a strong upward trend since the end of October, repeatedly hitting new annual highs [1] - Domestic macroeconomic conditions remain favorable, contributing to the positive sentiment in the aluminum market [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Concerns over electricity shortages have raised worries about the supply side of electrolytic aluminum [1] - The demand season is gradually coming to an end, leading to potential downward pressure on aluminum water conversion rates [1] - Domestic alumina operating capacity has slightly decreased, but this has not changed the supply-demand balance, with prices continuing to decline [1] Group 3: Long-term Outlook - In the long term, the aluminum industry is expected to maintain high prosperity due to limited supply growth and ongoing demand increases [1] - The fundamentals for alumina remain in an oversupply situation, with spot prices continuing to decline [1] - The logic of aluminum shortages is expected to gradually materialize, leading to an upward cycle in aluminum prices and expanding profits for electrolytic aluminum [1]